A new report forecasts that the value of the global branded footwear market will grow by 3.7% over the next five years. However, as the sector develops and attempts to meet consumer demand, shoe company strategists will have to keep their ears close to the ground and avoid getting their laces in a twist, writes Joe Ayling.

The market value of the global branded footwear will inevitably continue to grow in line with the rising population over the next five years, albeit at a slower rate than the previous half-decade, according to a new report.

Key market drivers to 2011, including brand recognition, repeat sales, casual dressing, pricing, and the environment, are identified by the research, 'Global market review of branded footwear - forecasts to 2011.'

The global branded footwear market is expected to continue growing by 3.7% between 2005 and 2011, to US$321.5bn by the end this period. However, such growth could depend on footwear industry changes ranging from quota amendments to ethical trading, the report - published by just-style - notes.   

Wordwide footwear volumes, over the same forthcoming period, are expected to rise 14.5% from 14.2bn pairs in 2006 to 16.6bn pairs by the end of 2011. This rising demand is in line with the growing global population, which according to the US Census is due to reach 6.9bn by 2011, from a current worldwide number of 6.5bn people. 

Segmented growth
The just-style report says that the men's footwear market will grow by 23% between 2005 and 2011, but that this growth will not be translated across all segments.

The male recreational sector might well be set for decline suggests the research, in contrast to both the formal and luxury sectors, due to higher levels of disposable income in developed countries and the growth of middle class consumers in developing markets such as India and China.

Indeed, demand for men's recreational shoes could sink from current levels of 3.18bn to 2.72bn pairs by 2010, says the report.

Growth in the women's global footwear market is gauged to be lower than the men's market over the next five years, at 13% between 2005 and 2011.

Notably, the global report finds that the children's footwear market will grow at a rate of 31% between 2005 and 2011 - higher than the global birth rate during the same time, which is estimated at 12%. This disparity is due to increasing levels of disposable income among parents in developing countries, the report surmises.
 
Capturing new business
To capture new business, manufacturers will look to position brands under a powerful spotlight, through product launches, advertising campaigns, and brand placement.

The global market report identifies consumer retention as a vital factor for footwear companies' continued success, and maintaining market position. Large global events, such as the Olympics, and FIFA World Cup, are seen to offer product-placement and advertising opportunities on an unprecedented scale for footwear brands.

Another key market driver is replacement due to wear, with the lifespan of many items of footwear typically in the range of two to four years.

"Clearly, brands need to strike the correct balance between the need for repeat sales and customers feeling that they have had "good" wear and "value" from their original purchase," the report says.

Awareness that footwear sales are increasingly driven by fashion is vital, the report notes.

The growth of casual dressing extending to footwear and the environmental impact of global warming on climate change also need to be considerations for footwear firms, the report points out.

Impacts on future revenues
just-style's report foresees the evolution of the global footwear market being influenced by an ever-growing luxury sector, as the number of millionaires grows globally by 7% over the next five to seven years, and the sector benefits from greater disposable incomes worldwide, in part from the postponement of marriage and children until later in life. 

Another industry issue controlling future footwear revenues will be the EU's findings that both China and Vietnam had been "dumping" leather footwear in the EU, the report says. Imports from both countries have soared in recent years, but a new EU anti-dumping scheme to tackle Chinese and Vietnamese shoe imports has put a duty of 10% on all leather footwear imports from Vietnam, and one of 16.5% on all imports from China.

The report also goes on to say that one of the most significant changes in supply between 2007 and 2011 will be the emergence of Fairtrade products.

Europe and the US are expected to continue as designer-wear trendsetters for the globe to 2011. Another prominent market is China where, in the large cities, a middle class is developing and making purchase decisions on a whole range of goods. India will be the next area to experience this effect as the large cities grow and the middle class grows in size and number, the report forecasts.

Further international market analysis covering France, Germany and Russia, together with company profiles featuring Brown Shoe Company, C&J Clark, Timberland, Wolverine, Skechers and Vans, is covered in the Global market review of branded footwear - forecasts to 2011, now available from just-style. For more information, click here.