Garment imports settle on strategic suppliers

Comment: Garment imports settle on strategic suppliers

By David Birnbaum | 27 June 2012

Sri Lanka is seeing positive growth in apparel exports

The world's economic problems are still very much with us, but it now appears - from the latest US figures - that garment customers may have settled down to a new but stable order of strategic suppliers. David Birnbaum looks at the data.

For the past year importers have been in a state of flux, trying to reconcile rising supplier costs with falling consumer demand. Desperation brought radical changes, rushing hither and yon in search of low cost suppliers.

Business was taken from long time reliable factories and given to relative newcomers. National industries which had been languishing for years suddenly found themselves inundated with new orders.

We are all familiar with China's declining garment exports. Less familiar was the dramatic rise in exports from Philippines and Pakistan.

The world's economic problems are still very much with us, but it now appears - looking at the latest US figures - that garment customers may have settled down to a new but stable order of strategic suppliers.

Of the major garment supplying countries and regions, China looks best, with unit market share rising by 6.7% and value market share rising by 1.8% in the first four months of 2012.

ASEAN is also doing well, with an overall rise in unit market share of 0.9% and value market share rising by 0.7%. The individual ASEAN countries show mixed results, but lean towards the positive.

On the positive side:

Vietnam: units up 9.0%; value up 7.1%
Cambodia: units up 8.5%; value up 4.5%

On the negative side:

Indonesia: units down -5.7%; value down -2.5%
Philippines: units down -4.8%; value down -4.2%
Thailand: units down -20.6%; value down -14.1%

Mexico/DR-CAFTA had been doing well but is now suffering, with an overall decline in unit market share of -5.4% and value market share falling by -1.1% in the four-month period.

The individual Mexico/DR-CAFTA countries show mixed results, but lean towards the negative.

On the positive side:

Nicaragua: units up 6.4%; value up 19.4%
El Salvador: units up 0.8%; value up 2.5%
Mexico: units down -1.2%; value up 1.5%

On the negative side:

Dominican Republic: units up 0.5%; value down -4.2%
Honduras: units down -15.4%; value down -10.6%
Guatemala: units down -13.9%; value down -11.0%

South Asia, which also had been doing well, is now declining rapidly with an overall drop in unit market share of -6.9% and value market share falling by -4.2%.

The individual South Asia countries show mostly negative results, with all countries showing decline with the notable exception of Sri Lanka.

On the positive side:

Sri Lanka: units up 8.0%; value up 15.7%

On the negative side:

Bangladesh: units down -5.6%; value down -0.8%
India: units down -9.3%; value down -9.1%
Pakistan: units down -14.2%; value down -20.3%

Looking at the second level region:

On the positive side:

Sub-Saharan Africa: units up 5.7%; value up 6.1%

On the negative side:

ANDEAN: units down -11.4%; value down -19.1%

Looking at the second level countries:

On the positive side:

Jordan: units down -0.9%; value up 14.0%

On the negative side:

Egypt: units down -16.1%; value down -0.8%
Haiti: units down -13.0%; value down -3.3%

All garment products - market share in units - YTD 04-12

Units	2011	2012	% +/-
SSA	0.9%	1%	5.7%
G.China	33.9%	36.2%	6.7%
ASEAN	24.6%	24.8%	0.9%
MX/DR-CAFTA	17.3%	16.3%	-5.4%
S. ASIA	17.5%	16.3%	-6.9%
ANDEAN	0.6%	0.5%	-11.4%
Nicaragua	1.8%	1.9%	6.4%
Jordan	0.8%	0.8%	-0.9%
Sri Lanka	1.6%	1.7%	8%
Vietnam	9%	9.8%	9%
Cambodia	4.5%	4.9%	8.5%
El Salvador	3.4%	3.4%	0.8%
Mexico	4.3%	4.2%	-1.2%
Bangladesh	8%	7.6%	-5.6%
Egypt	1.2%	1%	-16.1%
Indonesia	6.7%	6.3%	-5.7%
Haiti	1.2%	1%	-13%
Dom Rep	0.9%	0.9%	0.5%
Philippines	1.9%	1.8%	-4.8%
India	5%	4.5%	-9.3%
Honduras	5.1%	4.3%	-15.4%
Guatemala	1.5%	1.3%	-13.9%
Thailand	1.8%	1.4%	-20.6%
Pakistan	2.9%	2.5%	-14.2%

All garment products - market share in value - YTD 04-12

Value	2011	2012	% +/-
SSA	1.1%	1.1%	6.1%
G.China	32.6%	33.2%	1.8%
ASEAN	24.3%	24.4%	0.7%
MX/DR-CAFTA	15.3%	15.1%	-1.1%
S. ASIA	16.9%	16.2%	-4.2%
ANDEAN	1.5%	1.2%	-19.1%
Nicaragua	1.6%	2%	19.4%
Jordan	1.1%	1.3%	14%
Sri Lanka	2%	2.4%	15.7%
Vietnam	8.9%	9.5%	7.1%
Cambodia	3.6%	3.7%	4.5%
El Salvador	2.3%	2.3%	2.5%
Mexico	5.1%	5.2%	1.5%
Bangladesh	6.9%	6.8%	-0.8%
Egypt	1.3%	1.3%	-0.8%
Indonesia	7.6%	7.4%	-2.5%
Haiti	0.9%	0.9%	-3.3%
Dom Rep	0.8%	0.8%	-4.2%
Philippines	1.7%	1.6%	-4.2%
India	5.7%	5.2%	-9.1%
Honduras	3.4%	3%	-10.6%
Guatemala	1.8%	1.6%	-11%
Thailand	1.8%	1.5%	-14.1%
Pakistan	2.3%	1.8%	-20.3%

While it is still too early to declare this to be the new order of strategic apparel supplying countries, recent trends tend to support the latest data.

David Birnbaum is the author of The Birnbaum Report, a monthly newsletter for garment industry professionals. Each issue analyses in-depth US garment imports of four major products from 21 countries, as well as ancillary data such as currency fluctuations, China quota premiums and clearance rates. Click here to visit David's website.

Sectors: Apparel, Manufacturing, Retail, Sourcing