The global recession has affected the lingerie market just as every other retail sector, with a new report from just-style suggesting sales fell by nearly 3% in 2009. But while the economic downturn has put the industry under enormous pressure, recovery is likely to get underway in 2010.

On average, a woman in western Europe or the US will buy two bras and five pairs of briefs per year, while her wardrobe will contain between five and eight bras, as well as six to ten pairs of briefs. Real lingerie enthusiasts will have considerably more.

This is a market that while mature, continues to show potential for global growth as evidenced in just-style's Global market review of lingerie and intimate apparel - forecasts to 2016, 2010 edition.

Challenges
There's no getting away from it - the global recession has affected the lingerie market just as every other retail sector and just-style estimates the US dollar impact last year will depress the lingerie market in 2009 from $29.8bn to $29bn, a drop of nearly 3%.

Specifically, 2009 bra sales were estimated to be down 23m to 1.54bn (-1.5%), while briefs sales are down 40m to 4.6bn (-0.9%).

Despite that gloomy outlook, the just-style report believes that recovery will start in 2010 and accelerate through 2012. By 2016, the lingerie market at retail prices will be worth $32bn.

Also by 2016, the world market will be 1.64bn bras, while some 4.74bn briefs will be sold worldwide.

The volume relationship between bras and briefs will continue to change. By 2016 just-style expects the mix to be 2.9 briefs to every bra sold.

There will be regional changes by 2016, namely Europe and Turkey's lingerie market share will have continued to fall and will stand at 39% - it was 42% in 2004. The rest of the world will account for 17.3% of market value.

Drivers
Industry consolidation is ever present, but in lingerie this happened around two years ago, some time before the credit crunch bit.

Indeed, as the just-style report shows, if anything, the sector is fragmenting into more and smaller businesses.

Recessionary pressures also appear to have polarised the lingerie market, with consumers moving both up towards luxury and down to value, although there has been a move to health club wear.

Whatever the economic framework, lingerie function is key. Nowhere is this more evident than in sports and maternity bras.

Fit is a major issue in lingerie and the just-style report discusses the fitting concept in depth.

For example, a woman aged 25 and up will generally know if a particular brand fits her. Nowhere is this more relevant than if the product is ordered through a mail-order catalogue or the internet.

Regions and products
Just-style's report also details market breakdown according to value, region and product with value estimates of the bra market in 2010 for example, expected to be $16.6bn, up from last year's total by $460m and representing 56% of the market.

The briefs market in 2010 will be worth $9.4bn, while North America this year will account for the same 27% of market value as it did in 2008.

In 2010 the rest of the world will account for 16% of market value. This is a rise of 1% since 2004 and a further rise in market share since 2008.

The just-style report boldly claims: "We are witnessing the beginning of the end of developed world hegemony of the lingerie industry."

Market recovery
The recovery that will begin in the lingerie apparel sector in 2010 should grow in strength by 2012 and is estimated to be worth $30.7bn.

By 2016, the lingerie market at retail prices is predicted to be worth $32.1bn.

just-style's view of the industry
Despite bullish attempts to present a positive face, there is no doubt the lingerie industry is suffering with unit sales down and heavy discounting prevalent. Own label remains a key element of the marketing mix.

The emergence of TV reality shows such as Gok Wan in the UK with "How to look good naked," has put the industry front of mind, so much so that he is now producing his own lingerie range for sale in department stores.

The challenge is clearly on and while recessionary pressures have put the industry under enormous pressure, modest reasons for optimism are clearly there.

Lingerie is not going to go away anytime soon and the developing world will be a key driver in future growth.