If Mexico fails to develop local sources for good cotton textiles by 2005, its garment industry will head south, predicts David Birnbaum in this modern-day cautionary tale. But equally, it could go the other way, and in the next ten years the NAFTA advantage, together with Mexico's proximity to the United States, could result in its garment industry becoming a world leader. Predicting the past is always easy, but the outcome of this story is not yet consigned to the history books.