Petah Marian

Next trading update: what the analysts say

By | 4 January 2012

Next was the first of the major UK clothing retailers to reveal their Christmas trading updates. The retailer deemed its 3.1% sales growth for the period between 1 August and 24 December as "disappointing" given that snow adversely impacted sales in 2010. Here is a flavour of what leading retail analysts had to say about Next's recent performance.

Shore Capital analyst Clive Black
"Next is, by common decree, a fabulously operated firm (it would need to be with multiple years of negative same store sales) and highly admired by most in the rag trade. That it has recorded mellow end of year trading against favourable comparatives shows the ongoing challenges facing the UK consumer and this must have a potentially negative read across for other apparel retailers on the high street; we think most obviously amount Marks & Spencer, which reports Q3 trading on the 10th January 2012 - we continue to expect to be shaving of full year M&S EPS estimate, which is currently 34p."

Singer Capital Markets analyst Matthew McEachran
"Although margin and cost management means hitting FY consensus, trading over the peak period appears to have been weaker than feared in Retail. Coupled with concerns about employment and nervousness about the Eurozone, this has led management to issue cautious guidance for Jan'13 which may lead to downgrades of c3%.This is likely to weigh on the premium rated shares which have performed well recently."

Charles Stanley analyst Sam Hart
"Our base case scenario is that UK consumer spending will remain very subdued through 2012 and into 2013, reflecting muted wage growth, public sector spending cuts and some uncertainty surrounding future employment prospects. Barring a disorderly breakup of the Eurozone, however, we see limited probability of a further material deterioration in consumer spending patterns in 2012/13. Given Next's improving fashion credentials and a strong on-line offer, we think the company can continue to make steady progress under such conditions. Growth in PBT is likely to be anaemic, but share buybacks should boost EPS growth to the mid-single digit range."

Conlumino analyst Neil Saunders
"That Next has been able to deliver overall growth in a price sensitive market without resorting to discounting is impressive. Improvements in assortment, ranging and merchandising and strong own labels have all helped create aspirational, must have product for which consumers are willing to pay full price. In the long run we believe that Next is a Christmas winner not just because it has delivered sales growth, but because it has delivered it profitably and largely at full margin.

"Looking forward, while there will be further pressure on the high street in 2012, we believe Next is operationally geared to continue to grow market share and deliver profitable growth."

Verdict analyst Honor Westnedge
"Next has reported a commendable set of results, with the directory arm of the business compensating for the more disappointing retail sales which have struggled to improve against the difficult economic backdrop and the competitive high street. Moreover, despite increased pressure to markdown during the Christmas trading period, Next did not discount in an effort to protect operating margins - an admirable performance with so much discounting activity on the rest of the high street. While promotional activity could have driven footfall in the run up to Christmas and improved retail sales, profitability would have been damaged and the impact of its end of season sale would have lessened."

Sectors: Finance, Retail

Companies: Marks & Spencer

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