Bob's Blog

SAD-ly gray
25th January 2010

Gray, gray, gray - this time of year in this part of the U.S. is just plain depressing. I was driving to work this morning - as you may know - I live in Chicago. I'm sure you can guess what it's like in Chicago at this time of year. Gray … everything is gray - gray and depressing - - Have I painted a clear enough picture? Is it gray?

Some people have it much worse during this time of year than other people. Some people suffer from SAD.

Seasonal affective disorder

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Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD), also known as winter depression or winter blues, is a mood disorder in which people who have normal mental health throughout most of the year experience depressive symptoms in the winter or, less frequently, in the summer,[1] spring or autumn, repeatedly, year after year. In the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV), SAD is not a unique mood disorder, but is "a specifier of major depression".[2]

The US National Library of Medicine notes that "some people experience a serious mood change when the seasons change. They may sleep too much, have little energy, and crave sweets and starchy foods. They may also feel depressed. Though symptoms can be severe, they usually clear up."[3] The condition in the summer is often referred to as Reverse Seasonal Affective Disorder, and can also include heightened anxiety.[4] It has been estimated that 1.5-9% of adults in the US experience SAD.[5]

There are many different treatments for classic (winter-based) seasonal affective disorder, including light therapy with sunlight or bright lights, antidepressant medication, cognitive-behavioral therapy, ionized-air administration,[6] and carefully timed supplementation of the hormone melatonin.[7]

Symptoms

Symptoms of SAD may consist of: difficulty waking up in the morning, tendency to oversleep as well as to overeat, and especially a craving for carbohydrates, which leads to weight gain. Other symptoms include a lack of energy, difficulty concentrating on completing tasks, and withdrawal from friends, family, and social activities. All of this leads to the depression, pessimism, and lack of pleasure which characterize a person suffering from this disorder.

People that experience Reverse SAD (spring and summer depression) show symptoms of insomnia, anxiety, irritability, decreased appetite, weight loss, and a decreased sex drive.[4] RSAD can also manifest depression, which makes it difficult to diagnose this rare affliction.

Pasted from <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_affective_disorder>

While I'm pretty sure I don't suffer from SAD (but I know people who do) - I was wondering what Fashion could do for the people that do. So, my mind began to wander as I was driving (don't be concerned about me driving while my mind is wandering - traffic during the Chicago morning 'rush' moves at a snails pace (hey, why on earth do "they" call that time of day a "Rush Hour" … it's certain that no one is actually rushing anywhere - (but - I digress)) and I began to look at the things around me - gray sky, gray cars, gray buildings, gray clothing and coats or the gray people.

From that - I began to wonder - do we in this Fashion industry actually have this seasonality thing all backward? Looking into the cars around me - everyone is in coats - guess what color … yep, gray (or black). If there is any time of year that we need some color in our lives - it has to be now.

A few years back when I was visiting Stockholm at this time of year - I went to a shopping mall. I walked past a large booth in the middle of the building - a booth filled with lights. I asked my colleague what it was for - he of course gave me a typical Swedish clinical explanation - but followed up by saying "I think you call it seasonal affective disorder". People could go into that booth to lose the 'winter blues'. But of course everyone in the booth was wearing gray and black (I've com to believe that those are the Swedish national colors (amazing when you consider the colorful Swedish flag).

So still my mind is wandering (I have a long commute when traffic is slow) - what if Fashion designers and merchandisers were to plan more color into winter collections? What would the impact be on SAD people? What would the possible impact be on all of us? Heck, major retail organizations have spent a lot of money to try and determine what color lighting - in what parts of the store give people a better feeling - and (thus) making them feel better about buying. We know that as human beings - we react to light and color - we know that it gives us a better feeling about life. Gray and dark only makes us feel gray and dark. Is it possible that we would all become more pleasant - and less stressed during this time of year?

(My apologies to my friends 'down under' - Please just put this aside - and revisit it in about 6 months.)

By the way - I will be attending (and speaking) at the Prime Source Forum in Hong Kong - March 29 - 31.

While everyone's travel budgets may have been cut back due to the economy - this is an event worth attending - even if I wasn't one of the speakers.

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Sourcing - Today, tomorrow, next week Tuesday …
13th January 2010

In most of the "western world" the question of whether or not to Out Source production is moot. The resources are no longer available. Future generations will probably wonder why there is any discussion of Sourcing vs. Manufacturing for apparel … or will they?

I'm a pretty simple guy … I like simple definitions to things.

Every Thanksgiving my sister (the social worker) and I end up in the same conversational argument. I say "Shxx is shxx - and why can't we just say that? Why are we so hung up on finding euphemistic ways of saying the simplest of things?" And every year she responds with "That shxx laid in the ground - and became compressed over time. Now, it's called peat - and in Ireland and Scotland they burned it to heat their homes." What on earth does that have to do with Sourcing - well, I'm going to try to make that clear.

I look at Sourcing in a very binary way … You either source for strategic reasons for you source for opportunistic reasons.

When I went to work for a company in the mid-western part of the US (who shall remain nameless) - they were primarily a manufacturing company. They had some specialty products that were 'ordered' as 'full package' from Asia. Those items were completely controlled by the Merchandising Department - and - the only time that Operations was called in - was when something went wrong (stop me if this sounds familiar). The approach to working in Asia was simple - Merchandisers would go shopping - and the subsequent sourcing decisions were made for purely opportunistically reasons.

I went to "Wikipedia" for a definition of "Sourcing" - this is what I got …

Sourcing

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In business, the term word sourcing refers to a number of procurement practices, aimed at finding, evaluating and engaging suppliers of goods and services:

• Global sourcing, a procurement strategy aimed at exploiting global efficiencies in production
• Strategic sourcing, a component of supply chain management, for improving and re-evaluating purchasing activities
• Sourcing (personnel), the identification of job candidates through proactive recruiting technique
• Co-sourcing, a type of auditing service
• Low-cost country sourcing, a procurement strategy for acquiring materials from countries with lower labor and production costs in order to cut operating expenses
• Corporate sourcing, a supply chain, purchasing/procurement, and inventory function
• Second-tier sourcing, a practice of rewarding suppliers for attempting to achieve minority-owned business spending goals of their customer
• Netsourcing, a practice of utilizing an established group of businesses, individuals, or hardware & software applications to streamline or initiate procurement practices by tapping in to and working through a third party provider
• Inverted Sourcing, a price volatility reduction strategy usually conducted by procurement or supply-chain person by which the value of an organization's waste-stream is maximized by actively seeking out the highest price possible from a range of potential buyers exploiting price trends and other market factors
• Multisourcing, a strategy that treats a given function, such as IT, as a portfolio of activities, some of which should be outsourced and others of which should be performed by internal staff.[1]
• Crowdsourcing, using an undefined, generally large group of people or community in the form of an open call to perform a task

In journalism, it can also refer to:

• Journalism sourcing, the practice of identifying a person or publication that gives information
• Single sourcing, the reuse of content in publishing

In computing, it can refer to:

• Open-sourcing, the act of releasing previously proprietary software under an open source/free software license
• Power sourcing equipment, network devices that will provide power in a Power over Ethernet (PoE) setup

Pasted from <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sourcing>

Oh my gosh - or - (have any of you seen the Chipmunks movie from a couple years ago -) "Holy Nuts …"

talk about an overly complicating a definition …

If you have followed any of my ramblings - you'll know that I think we work in an industry 'on wheels' … things change for any number of reasons - they change quickly - and they change often.

If you study the needs of what the industry 'today' calls "Fast Fashion" - you'll see that tight convenient supply chains are a requirement. Okay - then let's add in the need for sophisticated transportation - moving stuff from one side of the globe to the other for sale. Let’s then add in a healthy shake of rising oil prices - and "et viola" - - you have the need to change the rules for your sourcing decisions.

This is not - nor has it ever been a price only consideration … those who approach it this way - may see short term benefits - but are destined to long term failure. Sourcing is an art as well as a science - one must be strategic in their thinking and in their actions. Only when supported with good information - analytics - and logic - coupled with good information on 'what's really going on' - can a sourcing effort really succeed.

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Amazing new technical fabric
11th January 2010

??? How does one wick dust ... ??? 

Don't you find the lack of technical knowledge (even basis stuff) around apparel pretty funny? When you read through things that have been written by people who don't understand industry terms - but (maybe should know) constantly mix metaphors - or create terms that mean absolutely nothing.

I was looking through an Orvis catalog a couple days ago. I'm not picking on Orvis - I shop with them - and I'm sure that I'll continue to shop with them. But this product copy just struck me a comical - and it reminded me of presentation that I attended - wherein the speaker used the terms knit and woven interchangeably - as if they meant one and the same.

"From the Orvis catalog …

Built from tightly woven pure cotton, our midweight Bush Poplin breathes well and wicks dust and moisture to keep you dry and cool on your adventures. Made to take on outdoor use, poplin's been standard issue in expedition and safari clothing for nearly a century, and was used widely in the field during WWII. Two big button-through pleated pockets, working epaulets for binocular or camera straps, and roll-up sleeve tabs. In stone, black, khaki, light olive. Pure cotton. Washable. Imported.

Sizes: M(38-40), L(42-44), XL(46-48), XXL(50-52). Tall sizes 2" longer in the body and sleeve. "

Some of you are now scratching your heads - 'what on earth is wrong with this guy - and why on earth is he giving Orvis a hard time?" In my 40 years with the apparel industry - I've spent a lot of time working with technical and performance fabrics … they're capable of all sorts of amazing things - moisture resistant, moisture repellence, moisture transference - but, what kind of amazing fabric have they found that 'wicks dust' … ???

Someone - please help me to understand … !!!

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What's a day worth?
16th November 2009

I was in Mexico a while back - we held an event in Mexico City - to talk with Fashion companies possibly interested in the world's best "Right Brain to Retail" - Fashion ERP system (I had to put a plug in for our system - - it really is the best Fashion solution available).

After our event - I went to visit some of our current customers. One of them said "business is really pretty good" - "we're tracking well ahead of last year - we've seen a renewed interest in regional sourcing".

Of course I had to ask 'why do you think it's happening'?

The answer "it's really pretty simple - we move through manufacturing just as fast as in Asia - and we're lots closer. In addition to the obvious cost saving from logistics - we can get it to them much faster - and - what's a day worth?"

Any of you in the US who belong to AAPN (and you all should) - will have read over and over about total costs versus component costs (or first costs in the sourcing world). Mike Todaro (aka Spam man) - has campaigned for years preaching the value of regional sourcing. Now, when we are looking for better - faster - cheaper: we're just beginning to understand the value of a saving days of working capital.

When are we going to wake up - and recognize that our obsession with cost elements without regard to total landed costs - is not really driving any profitability … ??? I strongly suggest that any of you who obsess over component costs - as a be all and end all - take a little time out to look into the principles of both "Fast Fashion" - and "Lean" ... And also - those of you who don't believe in the viability of regional sourcing - what's your plan - what costs will be acceptable - when the cost of a barrel of oil goes back up to $150 / barrel?

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Economics 102
5th October 2009

I read an article a little while back that indicated that Macy's in the US planed to 'lay-off' 7000 workers in the near future.

In 2008 retail in general eliminated 500,000 jobs - and I've seen estimates that say that 2009 has been at least twice that number as retail sales continued to falter.

I also read another article even more recently that indicated that Macy's current philosophy toward inventory is to eliminate all risky or marginal inventory - but just the same - isn't the crux of retail based in inventory - or as one of my professors used to say "you can't sell what you don't have …".

That's the retail side of the value chain - of course there is an equal or even greater impact on the supply chain side. I've seen numbers of articles - and - talked with numbers of friends that are on the verge of bankruptcy - bankers are unwilling to loan the operating capital that they need for funding the build of inventory or the cash required for ongoing operations. Fashion manufacturing organization are considered to be just to 'risky' - a marginally profitable business model with high risk - just not what bankers are looking for these days.

I've seen quotes related to the supply chain side of Fashion - indicating that 1/3 to 1/2 of all Fashion companies will be of new ownership at the end of this recession. And it has been said that more than 20,000 factories in Asia that support the Fashion supply chain have gone out of business (it's impossible to verify these numbers).

As most of you know - the apparel industry (for the most part) is not 'self-funded'. Most establish a revolving line of credit that they use throughout the year to fund their operating capital needs - - which (if everything goes right) - - by the end of the year the bank is paid off - and they are happy. This has been the way the industry has worked for decades - well - for as long as I've been in it.

So here we have... unprecedented lay-offs (retail) - along with huge cancelations of supply orders - coupled with credit strangulation (wholesale) during a time where we need just the opposite to ever produce growth in this industry again.

I'm no economic genius - but, it seems to me that we're making all the wrong moves if we ever hope to actually turn this recession mess around. People are out of work and those numbers are growing - retail is choked with merchandise - suppliers are being driven out of business by bankers (who have the money they won't loan from the US taxpayers) and soon - no one will be have any disposable income to use for the discretionary purchase of items like apparel and footwear.

I'm sure there's something that I'm missing here... I'm just not sure what it is.

And the latest incredible attitude attributed to major retail in both the US and Western Europe - "We'd rather lose sales - than get stuck with inventory." It seems to me (again) that we've missed the point. Isn't the key to surviving this economy based in the creation of strong supply networks - working in a collaborative manner - with open communication at the center? What we need now is the investment in proper business processes and policies that will allow retail to finally attain the "Right Product, Right Place, Right Now …" status they have been looking for since the beginning of time. Rather than this silly "turtle syndrome" we've got going.

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