Report package: Tomorrow’s clothing retail; and Tomorrow's apparel industry – forecasts to 2017
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Report description
This report package combines just-style's reports looking at tomorrow's apparel manufacturing industry, and its sister title reviewing tomorrow's clothing retail market. Both think-piece reports look at whether the financial crises of 2008-2010 have created a paradigm shift in the behaviour of manufacturers, consumers, retailers and brands, in what is now a differently constructed business and political world. These reports provide essential insight into how the recent downturn has left the world clothing retail and manufacturing industries, its effects and where the industries will likely head out to 2016.
Tomorrow’s apparel industry: products, markets, sourcing and processes – forecasts to 2017
This report is intended to stimulate thinking. It is a think piece about the future of the apparel industry. It should encourage apparel industry executives to consider what is going to shape their industry. In the previous edition the shaping of the industry concerned itself with future products, markets and processes in the apparel industry.
What has changed since the previous edition?
Individual changes in the market, in merchandise, in distribution, and in the political, social and economic world will be considered in depth in their respective chapters. But the major changes in the world affecting the apparel industry, in both developed and developing regions in the last eighteen months may be summed up as:
- Raw materials, especially cotton, shortages and hence fairly dramatic rising fabric prices.
- Increasing labour costs in low cost countries.
- Oil price increases, caused by political instability, impacting on transportation costs.
- Political instability affecting delivery reliability, particularly from suppliers in North Africa and the Middle East.
- The continuing ethical debate about sustainability, the environment and fair trade.
These are the factors influencing our predictions and forecasts of the future of the global apparel industry.
The report contains analysis of the world apparel manufacturing and retail markets, after the current downturn, with future predictions. It looks at recent merchandise trends, market and distribution, sourcing and production, the supply chain, technology, and macro-economic and political issues. All subjects contain our views on recent situations and the likely short-term scenarios.
Combining analysis with forecast data, this is an essential guide to the state your industry is in right now and what will likely happen throughout the supply chain over the short-term future.
Tomorrow’s clothing retail: sectors, markets and routes – forecasts to 2016
Following on from just-style's recent report predicting tomorrow's apparel manufacturing industry, this sister title looks at tomorrow's clothing retail market. This think-piece report is about the whole of clothing retail, now and in the future. It is an analysis of where the consumers' money will be spent. Accordingly, it has been split into broad price, merchandise and geography segments. These are:
- Price (luxury; mass; value).
- Merchandise (women’s outerwear; women’s underwear; menswear; childrenswear; accessories).
- Regional geography (North America; Western Europe; Japan; Middle East; BRICs).
The main question that the report poses is whether the financial crises of 2008-2010 have created a paradigm shift in the behaviour of consumers, retailers and brands, in what is now a differently constructed business and political world.
Extract: Retailers’ behaviours have been erratic, not to say schizophrenic since October 2008. In turn, we witnessed:
- an immediate reaction to dramatic falls in demand by a wave of offers;
- a realisation that SS09 would be heavily overstocked;
- a savage reduction in purchases for AW09;
- a ‘play it safe’ merchandise choice approach to SS10;
- for AW10 some have prepared for recovery; others have banked on double dip recession.
In this situation, the report considers four future drivers of the industry.
Following Chapter 1's Executive summary, Chapter 2 Introduction describes how the report will address the main question posed - whether the financial crises of 2008-2010 have created a paradigm shift in the behaviour of consumers, retailers and brands.
It answers the question by providing:
- the nature of the luxury, mass and value markets in Chapter 3, with the use of price-fashion matrices;
- the economics of the apparel market in Chapter 4, with the use of luxury, mass and value cost structures;
- the segments of the apparel market in Chapter 5, with the use of merchandise categories, fashionability and price points;
- a hypothesis for the future and an analysis of four major issues: polarisation, e-commerce, green and supply chain in Chapters 6-10;
- a forecast of future hotspots by merchandise categories, fashionability, price points and regions in Chapter 11. Here, this chapter provides historic and forecasted % share of the global clothing retail market by clothing segment and price point.
This report provides an essential insight into how the recent downturn has left the world clothing retail industry, its effects and where the industry will likely head out to 2016.
Table of contents
Tomorrow’s apparel industry: products, markets, sourcing and processes – forecasts to 2017
Chapter 1 Introduction, the previous tomorrow’s apparel industry report reviewed
The previous edition
What has changed since the previous edition?
Forecast methodologies
Definition of apparel
Methodology for market forecasts
Methodology for the other forecasts
Chapter 2 The market, after the current downturn, with likely future scenarios
The nature of the current downturn in apparel markets
The market in 2007
The market in the current downturn at 2011
The market, likely future scenarios to 2017
just-style’s view of the likely future of the market, in comparison with the 2010 edition
Chapter 3 Recent merchandise trends and product changes, with likely future scenarios
Are there any merchandise product changes about to happen?
The product mix in 2007
The product mix, likely future scenarios in 2017
The impact of product changes
just-style’s view of the likely future of product trends
Chapter 4 Market and distribution evolution, after the current downturn, with likely future scenarios
What is meant by distribution?
Distribution in 2007
Distribution in the current downturn in 2011
Distribution, likely future scenarios in 2017
just-style’s view of the likely future of apparel distribution
Chapter 5 The industry, after the current downturn, with likely future scenarios
Methodology of calculating the industry’s wholesale value
The industry at wholesale prices in 2007
The industry in the current downturn in 2011
The industry, likely future scenarios in 2017
just-style’s view of the likely future of the apparel industry
Chapter 6 Sourcing and production, after the current downturn, with likely future scenarios
Supply chain complications
Consumers
Retailers
Brands and wholesalers
Branded and external manufacturers
Fabric and other material suppliers
Simple and complex supply chains
Value added in the supply chain
The role of production
Production in the world’s regions in total
Production in the world’s regions split by garment destination region
just-style’s view of likely future sourcing and production in the apparel industry
Chapter 7 Supply chain external influences impacting the apparel industry
Geography, language and culture.
The lure of low labour cost country sourcing
Cotton, direct labour cost and the cost of oil within freight
The freight calculation
Production costs and supply lead times
Chapter 8 Other external influences impacting the apparel industry
What are the external influences?
The state of the euro zone
Political instability in North Africa and the Middle East
The weakness of the retail industry generally
Green issues
The Japanese earthquake and nuclear disasters
World garment manufacturing figures
Site supply chain facilities close to each other
South America as a manufacturing region
Change the manufacturing process
Localise retailing
Chapter 9 technology and computer systems in the apparel industry
New technology
Recent apparel industry computer expert views
Product lifecycle management, the new holy grail?
Chapter 10 politics and economics
Unemployment and domestic apparel manufacturing
Environmental issues and domestic manufacturing
Chapter 11 winners and losers
List of tables
Table 1: Apparel market values and share by region at retail prices, 2007-2017
Table 2: Apparel market values and share by product at retail prices, 2007-2017
Table 3: Apparel market values and share by distribution route at retail prices, 2007-2017
Table 4: Apparel industry values and share by region at wholesale prices, 2007-2017
Figure 1: The supply chain in the apparel industry - from producer to consumer
Table 5: Apparel production values and share by region at producer prices, 2007-2017
Table 6: Apparel production values and share by region, 2011
Table 7: Relative cost of regional supply of a typical five-pocket western jean
Table 8: Freight calculation (container from China)
Table 9: Forecast scenario probability percentages for 2017
Tomorrow’s clothing retail: sectors, markets and routes – forecasts to 2016
Chapter 1 Executive summary
Report scope
Luxury, mass market and value: An explanation and market shares
The current apparel market
Hotspots
Chapter 2 Introduction
Chapter 3 Luxury, mass market and value: an explanation
A very subjective market segmentation
Valuing the price-fashion matrix
Chapter 4 The economics of the apparel market
Margins
Costs
Profits
Chapter 5 Segmenting the apparel market by value
Overall segmentation by merchandise category
Segmentation by fashionability within merchandise category
Segmentation by price, within fashionability, within merchandise category
Chapter 6 The future clothing hypothesis
The veracity and robustness of economic forecasts
The depth of the problem
The effect on labour in developing countries
The plus side: Online sales are growing
Chapter 7 Polarisation between the luxury, mass-market and value segments
The current situation
The fickle versus the loyal customer
Increased choice on the High Street
E-commerce and ‘shopping around’
Increased fashion sense together with price deflation as parallel trends
Conclusion: Which segment is the winner in polarisation
Chapter 8 Online retailing in the UK: Which is the winning segment?
Introduction
The online value segment
The online mass-market segment
The online luxury segment
Conclusion: Which segment is the winner online?
Chapter 9 Green, ethical and sustainable issues for both the retailer and the clothing supplier
Can green be profitable?
The green position in the UK market in the value segment
The green position in the UK market in the ‘mass’ segment
The green position in the UK market in the luxury segment
Conclusion: Which segment is the winner on green?
Chapter 10 Supply chain influences on the consumer
Nature of the apparel industry supply chain
Supply chain nomenclature
Traditional collections (luxury, mass market and value)
Fast fashion (some mass market and some budget)
The consumers’ reaction
Chapter 11 The future of clothing retail
Historic, current and forecast percentage share by price level, all merchandise segments
Historic, current and forecast percentage share by price level, women’s outerwear
Historic, current and forecast percentage share by price level, women’s underwear
Historic, current and forecast percentage share by price level, menswear
Historic, current and forecast percentage share by price level, childrenswear
Historic, current and forecast percentage share by price level, acessories
List of figures
Figure 1: The price-fashion matrix
Figure 2: The price-fashion segmentation model, valued with price points and value percentages
Figure 3: Where people buy their clothes online, June 2009
Figure 4: The supply chain
Figure 5: Traditional supply chain calendar
Figure 6: Fast fashion supply chain calendar
List of tables
Table 1: Profit and loss cost structures of clothing retail for luxury, mass and value segments
Table 2: Merchandise category shares of apparel and accessories, 2010 (%)
Table 3: Merchandise category segments by fashionability
Table 4: Merchandise category segments by fashionability and price level, all segments
Table 5: Merchandise category segments by fashionability and price level, women’s outerwear
Table 6: Merchandise category segments by fashionability and price level, women’s underwear
Table 7: Merchandise category segments by fashionability and price level, menswear
Table 8: Merchandise category segments by fashionability and price level, childrenswear
Table 9: Merchandise category segments by fashionability and price level, accessories
Table 10: Percentage share of world clothing retail market by clothing price band, all segments, 2005-2016 (% and growth)
Table 11: Percentage share of world clothing retail market by clothing price band, women's outerwear, 2005-2016 (% and growth)
Table 12: Percentage share of world clothing retail market by clothing price band, women's underwear, 2005-2016 (% and growth)
Table 13: Percentage share of world clothing retail market by clothing price band, menswear, 2005-2016 (% and growth)
Table 14: Percentage share of world clothing retail market by clothing price band, childrenswear, 2005-2016 (% and growth)
Table 15: Percentage share of world clothing retail market by clothing price band, accessories, 2005-2016 (% and growth
Related research categories
By sector: Apparel and clothing, Trade and sourcing, General retail (in Retail)
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