UK Retail Briefing - Clothing and Footwear Retailers Focus - UK - January 2011

Analyst Comment
Christmas 2010
Big retailers, big centres fared better
2011
When is a price war not a price war?
When it’s a marketing gimmick
Onus of proof
Could a price war work?
The cynical view
A bankrupt idea
Headlines for the Month
Food retailers
Off licences
Clothing retailers
Footwear retailers
Multi-sector retailing
Department stores
DIY stores
Electricals
Furniture retailers
Health and beauty
Books and stationery
Sports and leisure goods
Retail Sales – Background and Outlook
Retail sales trends
Figure 1: Retail sales trends, 2009-10
BRC and Christmas trade
Figure 2: Trading statements for Christmas 2010
Figure 3: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, 2009-10
John Lewis
Figure 4: John Lewis: year-on-year growth, 2009-10
Inflation and wages
Figure 5: RPI vs average weekly earnings growth, 2008-10
Inflation remains uncomfortably high
Figure 6: Annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for selected product groups, 2009-10
Looking forward
The pattern of retail sales growth in early 2011
Sector Focus – Clothing and Footwear Retailers
Consumer expenditure
Figure 7: Consumer expenditure on selected product categories, 2000-09
Sales trends
Figure 8: Clothing and footwear specialist retailers, sales trends, 2000-2010 (Q1-3)
Inflation set to return
Figure 9: Deflation in clothing and footwear, 1999-2010 (Q1-3)
Sharp falls
Figure 10: Clothing and footwear specialists’ sales as % of all retail sales, 2001-10 (e)
Subsectors
Figure 11: Breakdown of clothing and footwear retailers’ value sales, by sub-sector, 2000-10
Retail price inflation
Figure 12: Indices of retail prices for key product categories, 2000-10
Clothing sector
Figure 13: Clothing specialists: leading clothing retailers’ sales, 2009/10
Footwear
Figure 14: Footwear specialists: leading footwear retailers’ sales, 2009/10
News Analysis
Grocers
Asda
…chairman steps down
…reports "good" Christmas performance
…vows to be 10% cheaper than its rivals
Co-op raises store opening drive
Iceland Foods could be target for Middle East consortium
Morrisons sees like-for-likes up 1%
Nisa reports strong Christmas trading figures
Tesco
…launches online 'Boxing Day' sale
…names new UK board
…fascia One Stop acquires 77 stores from Mills
Tesco, Morrisons and Sainsbury's kick off price cuts
Waitrose
…sees most successful Christmas on record
…to open 39 new stores
…weekly sales rise 8.7%
Off-licences
Majestic Wine reports strong Christmas performance
Clothing retailing
Agent Provocateur to report profit growth
Alexon sales fall won't affect long-term plans
H&M sees sales rise after Lanvin success
LVMH increases Hermes stake to 20%
Next sees £22 million in lost sales due to bad weather
Paul Smith sees profits rise
PPR ends Burberry speculation
Reiss' recession initiative increases EBITDA
Republic gains Andy Bond as new chairman
SuperGroup
…first half pre-tax profit up 86%
…shares dive
Topshop plans to 'double' sales
Zara owner sees sales grow by 14%
Footwear retailing
Barratts Priceless posts £6.1 million profit
Office bought by Silverfleet
Multi-sector retailing
Mothercare issues profit warning
M&S
…chairman Sir Stuart Rose steps down
…considers bank opening in 55 stores
…posts 2.8% Christmas like-for-like rise
…to open first store in Egypt and third in China
Department stores
Debenhams like-for-likes slow
Harvey Nichols reports record Sale
House of Fraser sees strong Christmas trading
John Lewis
…clearance is sales record
…invests record £250m
…mid-week sales up 12%
…Partnership sees record week of sales
…sales exceed £120m
…sees continuing strong trade
…total sales up 8.9%
Laura Ashley store streamlining improves profitability
DIY retailing
Topps Tiles' Christmas sales up
Travis Perkins sees sales improve
Wickes
…sees sales growth as shoppers buy ahead of VAT rise
…signs POS finance deal
Electrical retailing
Best Buy sales up 2% in third quarter
Dixons launches new Black format
Jessops on track to make EBITDA profit
Phones4U sale falls through
Furniture retailing
Carpetright profits fall
Dunelm Christmas like-for-likes fall
United Carpets posts "solid" performance
Home shopping
Ocado ends year with strong Christmas trading sales
Shop Direct
…Christmas sales up 5%
…to launch new brand targeting mature market
Health and beauty retailing
Boots to expand drive-through pharmacy
Lush Christmas sales up 6.8%
The Body Shop seeks growth in India
Book and stationery retailing
Clinton Cards warns on profits
HMV to shut 60 stores
WH Smith lose group marketing director Richard Cristofoli to Debenhams
Sports and leisure goods retailing
Europe: Nike sales in Western Europe drop 7%
Blacks Leisure Group sees good December
JD Sports reports strong Christmas
Sports Direct sees profits rise
Jewellers
Theo Fennell warns on profits
Toys and games retailing
Games Workshop warns on conditions
Economy
Europe: European consumer confidence relapses as trade deficit grows
Europe: VAT rise lowers consumer confidence
2011 VAT rise by country:
BRC
…reports retail sector like-for-likes fell 0.3% in December
…warns on Boxing Day tube strike disruption
John Lewis, M&S and Tesco among those holding off VAT rise
Localism Bill is "body blow" for retailers
UK retail sales up 0.3% in November
West End Christmas sales up on last year

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