The quotas imposed by the EU and US on Chinese clothing and textiles are due to come off at the end of this year and next year respectively.

And what will happen then?. What (if anything) will replace  them? Who will gain from what happens?

Many industry observers just assume China will carry on with the growth in clothing exports it was getting in 2005 before the EU and US slapped quotas against it. Others assume the EU and US will just discover some other way of keeping the Chinese “threat” at bay again.

“What’s going to happen when the quotas come off?” reviews what has happened so far, and the different effects quota abolition and re-imposition has had on different countries and product categories.

“What’s going to happen when the quotas come off?” also looks at what has happened in the main producing and importing countries. And it finds some startling changes – especially in China where there is an extraordinary transformation in wages, and imminent greater threats in unionisation, labour law, the role of the Communist Party, anti-pollution and anti-corruption law.

It also looks at the changes in the economies and apparel manufacturing resources of the other 49 major apparel-supplying countries, and at the deep changes in buyers’ priorities over the past decade

Was the flood of Chinese imports in 2005 just the tip of an iceberg that will wipe out the industry in the rest of the world? Or have the extraordinary changes in China over the past two years, and the worldwide upgrading of competitive capabilities, begun to turn the tide against certain Chinese dominance?

“What’s going to happen when the quotas come off?”” has its views on that. But more importantly, it provides readers with the data to make their own mind up – or to formulate cointingency plans to cover a range of planning options.

“What’s going to happen when the quotas come off?” is essential reading for anyone who needs to plan how their organisation needs to respond to a different world in 2008 and beyond – whether as a clothes manufacturer or supplier: a brand or a retailer.

Introduction

Executive Summary

1. What quotas did

2. Quota abolition: the immediate effect

3. Suppliers and buyers and markets: mid-2006

4. Other influences on supply

5. Buyers' perspectives

6. Regulatory barriers: now and in the future

7. What kind of buying country?

8. What kind of China: the country's competitiveness.

9. What kind of China: long term aims

10. What kind of world?

11. What kind of supplier country?

Appendix 1 Quota agreements

Tables
Table 1 Quotas imposed, 2003
Table 2 The Privilege Hierarchy
Table 3 China's apparel share by category: 2004
Table 4 The Effect of Quota Abolition
Table 5 Categories now subject to quota
Table 6 Quota Fill Rates
Table 7 China's changing apparel share
Table 8 Country Growth
Table 9: Cost elements in an average garment
Table 10 Duty, freight, insurance markup on costs from China to US
Table 11 Average landed price 2005 and 2006, by supplier country
Table 12 Proposed China Labour Law
Table 13 Producer and Supplier Economies
Table 14 Producer Country average trading, 2006

Supplier Country Profiles:

Albania
Bangladesh
Bulgaria
Burma
Cambodia
China
Colombia
Costa Rica
Croatia
Czech Republic
Dominican Republic
Egypt
El Salvador
Guatemala
Haiti
Honduras
Hong Kong
Hungary
India
Indonesia
Israel
Jordan
Kenya
Lesotho
Lithuania
Macao
Macedonia
Madagascar
Malaysia
Mauritius
Mexico
Morocco
Nicaragua
Pakistan
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Romania
Serbia
Singapore
Slovakia
South Korea
Sri Lanka
Syria
Taiwan
Thailand
Tunisia
Turkey
UAE
Ukraine
Vietnam