Blog: Economic turmoil in Eastern Europe
Leonie Barrie | 24 February 2009
Yesterday's agreement by European leaders to top up funds held by the International Monetary Fund should be welcomed by anyone who has an interest in the economies of emerging markets, and particularly Central & Eastern Europe.
Leaders of France, Germany, UK and Italy agreed yesterday to double the International Monetary Fund's emergency rescue fund to US$500bn.
Eastern Europe appears particularly vulnerable, with Ukraine, Hungary and Latvia having already asked the IMF for help and Romania reported to be in talks over a bail-out. Latvia's government collapsed last week.
For years, rising wages and consistent economic growth have seen Eastern Europe held up as a growth region for manufacturers and consumer goods companies.
Now, the party looks to be over. French newspaper Le Monde yesterday published European Commission figures on prospective gross domestic product declines across the Central and Eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007. It does not make pleasant reading for anyone who either lives or has money tied up east of the Oder river (http://polandpoland.com/germany_poland_border.html).
Declines of more than 5% in 2009 are expected in Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Hungary and Slovakia, with a decline of more than 10% predicted for Romania and more than 15% in Bulgaria. Czech Republic is set to escape relatively lightly, the Commission believes, with a 2% decline in GDP.
One of the main reasons is that banks and investors are pulling their money out of emerging markets. Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank, warned this weekend of a fall in credit in Europe, and particuarly among those outside the euro currency zone.
The United Nations reported in January that foreign direct investment fell by 21% worldwide in 2008, to US$1.4tn, and is likely to fall further in 2009.
Signs of a flight of investment from emerging market economies should not come as a great surprise. Historical precedents can be taken from the 1929 Wall Street Crash, which, like it or not, this current crisis increasingly resembles.
Take Germany in the immediate aftermath of 1929, for example. Cash-strapped investment houses in the US pulled considerable loans out of the fledgling German Republic. German chancellor Gustav Streseman, who incidentally died in 1929, spent much of his six years in office negotiating foreign investment loans to help rebuild his inflation-ridden and war weary country, but in the space of months, the US stock market collapse undid this work and exposed Germany's economic frailty.
Of course, we all know what happened politically with Germany in the 1930s, and this article does not suggest that we are looking at a similar situation in Eastern Europe.
But, the global economic downturn is uncovering economic weaknesses and exposure to foreign money could be a weakness that hits home hard in Eastern Europe and on those who do business there.
Continuing our look at what lies ahead for the apparel industry and its supply chain in 2017, the panel of industry experts consulted by just-style last week tackled likely shifts in the sourcing land...
This week our focus turns to first thoughts from a panel of industry experts consulted by just-style on the challenges and opportunities likely to face the apparel supply chain in 2017, with prospects...
Welcome back after the holiday break, and from the team here at just-style I’d like to wish all our readers a happy and prosperous New Year....
Apparel sourcing is a complex process built on a mix of location, logistics, lead-time, price, compliance, risk and reliability. And it's in a constant state of flux as retailers, brands and manufactu...
- Apparel factory auditing is in the firing line
- Trump and the apparel industry – Infographic
- How US border adjustment tax could affect apparel
- British Brexit plans prioritise tariff-free trade
- "Buy American, Hire American" to guide Trump trade
- Brands need to tackle Turkey factory refugee abuse
- New project to digitalise European fashion chains
- Patagonia launching circular economy platform
- Auditing "in need of reinvention" says new project
- Bangladesh urged to release garment union leaders
- Outdoor performance apparel 2016: A broader perspective
- Southeast Asia strategic sourcing review – a focus on Cambodia, Vietnam and Myanmar
- Global apparel markets: product developments and innovations, October 2016
- Anti-odour clothing: fresh fashion for an active lifestyle
- Global market review of lingerie – forecasts to 2022