Mexicos market share continues its very long-term decline

Mexico's market share continues its very long-term decline

US garment imports have not only reached record levels but, based on recent data, growth is accelerating. David Birnbaum has used this as an opportunity to take a snapshot of the global garment industry: the current position of exporting countries and more importantly the direction in which they are moving. This article, the third of three, looks at the losers.

Unsuccessful exporting countries are characterised by decreasing exports and decreasing market share. These are the countries that, despite increasing demand, are losing orders.

Unsuccessful exporting countries

Both exports and market share are falling.

We can divide this group into two categories: 

  • Those with potential to move up.
  • Those stuck at the bottom.

Upward potential

  • INDONESIA: Exports by units down 2.1% and down 0.6% by value.
Indonesia YTD 15-07 Indonesia YTD 15-07 Indonesia YTD 15-07
Units (1,000 Dozens) Value ($ Millions) FOB
2014 2015 %+/- 2014 2015 %+/- 2014 2015 %+/-
Total 879 860 -2.10% Total 3,380 3,359 -0.60% Total $3.85 $3.90 1.50%

Market share by value as of YTD August 2015 stood at 9.9% compared with 9.7% for the same period in 2014: a decrease of 1.8%. Market share continues its long-term decline. However, the industry is well established. Quality is good. It has a loyal customer following. Under the circumstances it may be too early count Indonesia out. 

Stuck at the bottom

  • MEXICO: Exports by units down 0.5% and down 2.7% by value.
Mexico YTD 15-07 Mexico YTD 15-07 Mexico YTD 15-07
Units (1,000 Dozens) Value ($ Millions) FOB
2014 2015 %+/- 2014 2015 %+/- 2014 2015 %+/-
Total 623 620 -0.50% Total 2,477 2,411 -2.70% Total $3.98 $3.89 -2.20%

Market share by value as of YTD August 2015 stood at 4.6% compared with 4.3% for the same period in 2014: a decrease of 7.3%. Market share continues its very long-term decline. There is little evidence that this trend will end any time in the future.

  • PAKISTAN: Exports by units down 1.81% and down 0.7% by value.
Pakistan YTD 15-08 Pakistan YTD 15-08 Pakistan YTD 15-08
Units (1,000 Dozens) Value ($ Millions) FOB
2014 2015 %+/- 2014 2015 %+/- 2014 2015 %+/-
Total 401 397 -1.10% Total 976 970 -0.70% Total $2.43 $2.44 0.40%

Market share by value as of YTD August 2015 stood at 1.8% compared with 1.7% for the same period in 2014: a decrease of 5.4%. Market share continues its long-term decline. This country has all the negatives of its South-Asian neighbours and few of their benefits.

  • THAILAND: Exports by units up 0.4% and down 1.8% by value.
Thailand YTD 15-08 Thailand YTD 15-08 Thailand YTD 15-08
Units (1,000 Dozens) Value ($ Millions) FOB
2014 2015 %+/- 2014 2015 %+/- 2014 2015 %+/-
Total 217 217 0.40% Total 695 682 -1.80% Total $3.21 $3.14 -2.10%

Market share by value as of YTD August 2015 stood at 1.2% compared with 1.3% for the same period in 2014: a decrease of 6.4%. Market share continues its long-term decline. This industry has been in slow decline for many years.

Conclusion

As long as US imports continue to grow, conditions will appear to be favourable.

Unsuccessful garment exporting countries will take solace in the fact that export declines are moderating and conclude that the worst is now over.       

The truth will come home when US garment imports stabilise or go into even a moderate decline. At that point, exports from unsuccessful garment exporting countries will collapse.

Click on the links below for Birnbaum's take on what the future holds for: