Overall back-to-school US retail sales are expected to rise 5.5% compared to last year – with apparel by far the fastest growing segment.

The forecast from Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment, builds on positive retail momentum that has already seen total retail sales rise 12% year-over-year in May.

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May marked the eighth consecutive month of total retail sales growth.

US retail sales are expected to grow 5.5% (excluding automotive and gas) during the critical 15  July through 6 September back-to-school period compared to 2020. Compared to 2019, sales are expected to grow by 6.7%.

“Back to school has always been a prime season for retailers. This year, the broader reopening brings an exciting wave of optimism as children prepare for another school year, and the grown-ups in their lives approach a similar ‘return to office’ scenario,” says Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and chairman of Saks Incorporated.

“This back-to-school season will be defined by choice as online sales remain robust, brick and mortar browsing regains momentum and strong promotions help retailers compete for shoppers’ wallets.”

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As the broader US reopening occurs and consumers return to brick and mortar, e-commerce sales are anticipated will ease slightly compared to last year (-6.6%) but will remain up a significant amount (+53.2%) when compared to 2019.

In terms of what consumers are buying this back-to-school season, apparel is expected to grow 78.2% on last year and by 11.3% on 2019, while sales at department stores are forecast to be up 25.3% year-on-year and by 9.5% on 2019.