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BEING BREXIT PREPARED WITH RE:SOURCE - UPDATE

By Andrew Leighton | 23 January 2019

At the end of September I wrote a blog about our preparation for getting re:source ready for Brexit. Amazingly, since then, the situation has become even more uncertain.

I wrote, “from 29 March 2019 to 31 December 2020, the EU and UK will begin operating under the agreed ‘Brexit transition period’, which paradoxically, gives the UK the ability to negotiate, sign and ratify its own trade deals during this period; yet the UK will remain party to existing EU trade deals with other countries.”

Today, those dates and the transition period itself are still yet to be agreed. If the UK leaves on time with an accepted deal, the above still rings true. But, there is every possibility that this might not happen.

Looking at the current betting odds, they are: 

  • 3/1 - we crash out

  • 3/1 - we have a 2nd vote and vote to remain

  • 7/4 - we have a 2nd referendum in 2019

  • 3/10 - UK won't leave by 29th March

Whatever happens, re:source can be configured to accommodate each of the possible outcomes. And in the event of the UK leaving, but retaining the EU trade agreements until the end of 2020, this is what the UK will look like in re:source:

Discover all the EU trade agreements the UK might still be part of during the transition period (there are UK and EU versions of the agreements):

Here is a profile page for a UK-specific FTA:

Here is a profile page for the UK's duty prospects:

This is how the UK is split out in Tariff Finder:

The UK's trade data is split out alongside the other major import markets we currently track: 

Trade data category dashboards can be built specifically for the UK:

Find UK-specific trade data using Data Finder: 

Finally, here’s a reminder of what the UK could look like in re:source post-Brexit, as described in my previous blog:

Trade agreement profiles

re:source will provide easy-to-read digests of any UK-specific trade agreements that are being negotiated, signed or ratified. All details on rules of origin, tariff phase out schedules and product-specific exceptions will be provided and explained, once they’re announced.

Trade data

Users of re:source will be able to search and extract UK-specific and EU27-specific trade data.

Country profiles

The UK will have its own page, with commentary on our latest expectations for duty rates into the UK after December 2020. This will be the place to bookmark to follow the latest in the unfolding saga.

After the transition period

Our ‘clone’ of the UK as a proxy member of the EU - which was created for the transition period - will change. The UK will be an independent principal importer (or ‘partner’) with its own trade agreements, and users will be able to view its trading situation entirely separate from the EU’s.

Tariff Finder will still look and function exactly the same, but now you’ll be able to see and compare UK- and EU-specific tariff rates across all apparel products from all exporting countries. In particular, the World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) Most Favoured Nation (MFN) rates will be split out for each importer, showing the new UK-specific tariffs. This is in the event of there being no trade agreements in place between any of the exporting countries and the UK.

Here’s the latest from Dr. Sheng Lu, re:source’s trade and tariffs advisor:

“If the UK leaves the EU with no deal, it means the UK will immediately lose the membership in all EU trade agreements and there will be NO transition period either. In such a case, we can do the following:

  • Treat UK as a separate country in re:source

  • UK’s exports to EU, US, Japan and Canada will be subject to each country’s MFN rate respectively

  • UK will impose tariffs on imports from all sources (we can assume the tariff rate equal EU’s MFN rate)

“Anything is still possible before the end of March”...


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