NRF said most holiday inventory is already in stores or warehouses, easing pressure on supply chains that were strained by shifting tariff policies earlier in the year.
“We’ve spent most of the year worried about the impact of tariffs on both inflation and the supply chain but the holiday season is here and mitigation efforts appear to have paid off,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said. “Store shelves are well stocked and the effect on prices has been minimised, largely thanks to retailers taking steps like frontloading imports during times of low or delayed tariff increases or absorbing the costs themselves. Consumers should be able to find the products they want at prices they like.”
Go deeper with GlobalData
Discover B2B Marketing That Performs
Combine business intelligence and editorial excellence to reach engaged professionals across 36 leading media platforms.
The report follows recent updates to US trade measures on China, including a reduction of the so-called “fentanyl” tariff from 20% to 10% effective 10 November, and a one-year delay to a major increase in “reciprocal” tariffs. A 10% tariff under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act remains in place while the Supreme Court reviews its legality.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the fluctuating trade policy has complicated long-term planning for both importers and ocean carriers, warning of continued uncertainty heading into 2026.
“These conditions make market forecasting highly uncertain,” Hackett said. “Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026.”
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.1m twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in September, down 9.3% from August and 7.4% year on year. October’s estimate of 1.99m TEU represents an 11.5% annual drop, with November and December projected at 1.85m and 1.75m TEU, respectively – the lowest levels since March 2023.
US Tariffs are shifting - will you react or anticipate?
Don’t let policy changes catch you off guard. Stay proactive with real-time data and expert analysis.
By GlobalDataWhile a year-end slowdown is typical, this year’s steep declines also reflect inflated import volumes in late 2024, when retailers accelerated shipments to avoid potential port strikes and tariff hikes.
The first half of 2025 saw total imports rise 3.7% year on year to 12.53m TEU, but the full year is expected to end 2.3% lower than 2024 at 24.9m TEU. The downward trend is forecast to continue into early 2026, with January projected to fall 11.1% year over year and March down 16.7%.
Despite the softer import outlook, NRF expects 2025 holiday sales to rise between 3.7% and 4.2% to just over $1trn, signalling steady consumer demand even as supply-side pressures persist.
