Based on Retail Monitor data, 2025 holiday sales from 1 November through 31 December, grew 4.1%. That compares with NRF’s forecast that holiday sales would increase between 3.7% and 4.2% from the same period in 2024 to just over $1trn. The forecast is based on US Census Bureau data, but Census numbers for December have not yet been released.
Total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, were up 1.26% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.54% unadjusted year over year in December, according to Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 0.12% month over month and 4.53% year over year in November.
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A late Thanksgiving pushed Cyber Monday into December in 2025, so an additional busy day of holiday spending is included in December’s data. December’s numbers brought total 2025 sales as calculated by Retail Monitor to an increase of 4.93% over 2024 and core sales to an increase of 5.08%.
Specifically for clothing and accessories, store sales increased 2.05% month over month and 6.11% year over year.
“December Retail Monitor data saw a sharp surge in growth as consumers continued prioritising holiday spending on family and friends,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Continued economic momentum helped land 2025 holiday sales near the top of NRF’s forecast, reaffirming that consumers remain on solid footing.”
US retailers report holiday sales and outlook revisions
Abercrombie and Fitch
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By GlobalDataChief executive officer Fran Horowitz said: “Our team remained on offense across product, voice, and experience, resulting in record quarter-to-date net sales through fiscal December, aligned with our expectations. Importantly, we delivered balanced growth across our regions, brands, and channels. Hollister Brands had a strong holiday and is positioned to deliver another year of mid-teens net sales growth for fiscal 2025. At Abercrombie Brands, we saw a strong customer response over the holidays, and we now expect to grow net sales in the low single digits for the fourth quarter on top of a record result last year.”
The company says it remains on track for “another year of significant progress”.
It updated its outlook for FY25: Net sales growth of at least 6% versus growth in the range of 6-7%; operating margin of 13% versus in the range of 13-13.5%; net income per diluted share in the range of $10.30 to $10.40 versus earlier projections of $10.20-$10.50.
In its updated outlook for Q4 2025 it expects net sales growth of 5% versus earlier projections of growth between 4-6%; net income per diluted share of $3.50-3.60 versus $3.40-3.70.
Vince Holding (VNCE)
For the nine-week period ending 3 January 2026, total company net sales increased 5.3% compared to the prior year period.
Direct-to-Consumer segment sales increased 9.7% compared to the prior year period, while wholesale segment sales decreased 2.7% compared to the prior year period.
Brendan Hoffman, chief executive officer of VNCE commented: “Our direct-to-consumer segment continues to deliver exceptional results, building on the strong momentum from our strategic investments in customer experience enhancements and e-commerce capabilities. Within wholesale, we have continued to see strong performance at the register with key partners helping to offset disruption in receipt flow with Saks Global given current dynamics. This overall performance, combined with our disciplined approach to balancing strategic pricing changes, promotional activity, and cost management, demonstrates the strength of our business model. As we look ahead, we will continue to execute and deliver on our strategic priorities that we believe will position us well for long-term profitable growth.”
Lululemon Athletica
The company now expects net revenue and diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 to be toward the high end of the previously guided ranges of $3.5bn to $3.585bn and $4.66bn to $4.76bn, respectively.
Meghan Frank, CFO, commented: “Based on our performance over the holiday period, we expect to achieve the higher end of our previously communicated fourth quarter net revenue and EPS guidance. We remain focused on executing our action plan to drive improvement in our U.S. business and look forward to the opportunities in front of us.”
Birkenstock
For Q1 ending 31 December, Birkenstock expects revenue of €402m, year-over-year growth of 11.1% on a reported basis and 17.8% in constant currency. The difference between reported and constant currency growth is primarily due to the significant depreciation of the US Dollar versus the Euro in the fiscal first quarter 2026 compared to the fiscal first quarter 2025.
American Eagle Outfitters
American Eagle Outfitters said fourth quarter-to-date comparable sales through 3 January 2026, are up in the high single digits. Sales trends are positive across brands and channels with American Eagle comp growth in the low single digits and Aerie comps in the low twenties.
Following a record holiday season, the company is raising its fourth quarter operating income to a range of $167m to $170m, up from the previous guidance of $155m to $160m. The increase largely reflects solid margin performance and anticipates consolidated comparable sales up in the range of 8% to 9%. Fourth quarter operating income guidance also includes approximately $50m of pressure from tariffs, as previously disclosed.
“Momentum continued in the fourth quarter with record December sales fueled by the power of our brands, with particularly strong growth at Aerie and Offline and sequential growth at American Eagle. Our customers embraced new product collections and responded to our latest marketing initiatives, with strength continuing in the post-holiday period. We look forward to building on this positive trajectory with new customer-inspired collections, as we remain focused on creating value for our shareholders,“ commented Jay Schottenstein, executive chairman of the board and chief executive officer, AEO Inc.
Urban Outfitters
Total company net sales for the two months ended 31 December, increased 9% year-on-year. Total retail segment net sales increased 7%, with comparable retail segment net sales increasing 5%. The increase in the retail segment comparable net sales was driven by mid single-digit positive growth in both digital channel sales and retail store sales. Comparable retail segment net sales increased 9% at Urban Outfitters, 5% at Free People and 3% at Anthropologie. FP Movement brand retail segment comparable net sales increased 18% and Free People brand Retail segment comparable net sales increased 1%.
Wholesale segment net sales increased 13% driven by an increase in Free People wholesale sales primarily due to an increase in sales to department stores.
For the 11 months ended 31 December total company net sales increased 11% year-on-year. Total retail segment net sales increased 8%, with comparable Retail segment net sales increasing 6%. The increase in retail segment comparable net sales was driven by mid single-digit positive growth in both digital channel sales and retail store sales. Wholesale segment net sales increased 15% driven by an increase in Free People wholesale sales primarily due to an increase in sales to specialty customers and department stores.
