The decline in import volumes has been forecast as the effects of tariffs persist.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett stated that tariffs have resulted in “a global change in trade relations” affecting import volumes.
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“The continuing use of tariffs against friend and foe alike combined with the uncertainty of when or if they will be implemented makes trade forecasting very difficult. Following essentially flat container import volumes in 2025 compared with 2024, we expect a decline during the first half of 2026 and likely longer,” he said.
This uncertainty is reflected in the projections for port activity.
For the first half of 2026, Global Port Tracker anticipates total imports will reach 12.27 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), representing a 2% decrease compared with the same period in 2025, which saw 12.53 million TEU.
The forecast breaks down monthly estimates as follows: 2.11 million TEU for January, 1.97 million TEU for February, 1.89 million TEU for March, 2.05 million TEU for April, 2.13 million TEU for May, and 2.12 million TEU for June.
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By GlobalDataWhile May and June are projected to show a year-on-year increase, this is largely due to lower volumes recorded during those months in the previous year after additional tariffs were imposed in April 2025.
In December, the ports tracked by Global Port Tracker handled 1.99 million TEU, which represented a decrease of 1.7% compared to November and a fall of 6.6% versus December of the previous year.
Full-year import volumes reached 25.4 million TEU in 2026, slightly below the 25.5 million TEU recorded in 2024.
Ongoing legal challenges continue regarding the administration’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, with a Supreme Court decision expected at any time about their legality.
There is concern that even if these tariffs are overturned, new tariffs might be imposed using other trade authorities, leading to additional uncertainty for businesses.
NRF supply chain and customs policy vice president Jonathan Gold said: “With tariffs still a matter of debate in the courts and in Congress, their effect on imports is being clearly seen. The situation underscores the need for clear and predictable trade policies that support supply chain certainty and reliability, business planning and consumer affordability. Tariffs are a tax on US businesses that is ultimately paid by consumers through higher prices.”
The Global Port Tracker covers historical data and forecasts for key US ports including Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville, and Houston.
