With tariff increases on Chinese products delayed for the foreseeable future, and the busy summer season approaching, imports at major US retail container ports are beginning to climb once again, new figures show.
The US added an additional 10% tariff on US$200bn worth of Chinese goods last September, with an increase to 25% scheduled for 1 March. But the rise was postponed by President Trump, and is on hold until further notice as the US and China try to resolve the issue.
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“Retailers are starting to stock up in anticipation of a strong summer,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said. “Tariff increases are on hold and progress is being reported in talks between the United States and China, so the imports we’re seeing now are driven primarily by expectations for consumer demand.”
According to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, major US retail container ports handled 1.62m Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in February, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was down 14.3% from January and down 4% year-over-year.
February is traditionally the slowest month of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia and the lull between retailers’ holiday and summer seasons. A TEU is one 20-foot-long cargo container or its equivalent.
March was estimated at 1.63m TEU, up 5.9% year-over-year. April is forecast at 1.75m TEU, up 6.9%; May at 1.9m TEU, up 4%; and June at 1.89m TEU, up 2%.
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By GlobalDataMeanwhile, looking further ahead, July is forecast at 1.96m TEU, up 2.9%, while August is expected to total 1.97m TEU, up 4.3%. The August number would be the highest since the record 2m TEU set last October as retailers brought holiday merchandise into the country ahead of the expected tariff increases.
Imports during 2018 set a new record of 21.8m TEU, an increase of 6.2% over 2017’s previous record of 20.5m TEU. The first half of 2019 is expected to total 10.7m TEU, up 3.7% over the first half of 2018.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett added: “The US consumer, while more cautious, has not stopped spending. The inventory-to-sales ratio, however, is on the rise. Part of this can be attributed to the heavy front-loading of imports ahead of expected tariff increases that took place in 2018.”
