Holiday retail sales in the US are expected to increase by between 4.3% and 4.8%, according to new figures, reflecting the healthy economy and strong consumer confidence.
Latest data from the National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts retail sales for November and December will reach between US$717.45bn and $720.89bn, up from $687.87bn last year.
Go deeper with GlobalData
Discover B2B Marketing That Performs
Combine business intelligence and editorial excellence to reach engaged professionals across 36 leading media platforms.
“Our forecast reflects the overall strength of the industry,” says NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay. “Thanks to a healthy economy and strong consumer confidence, we believe that this holiday season will continue to reflect the growth we’ve seen over the past year. While there is concern about the impacts of an escalating trade war, we are optimistic that the pace of economic activity will continue to increase through the end of the year.”
Holiday sales in 2017 were up 5.3% on the year before and marked the largest increase since the 5.2% year-over-year gain seen in 2010 after the end of the Great Recession.
“Last year’s strong results were thanks to growing wages, stronger employment and higher confidence, complemented by anticipation of tax cuts that led consumers to spend more than expected,” explains NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “With this year’s forecast, we continue to see strong momentum from consumers as they do the heavy lifting in supporting our economy. The combination of increased job creation, improved wages, tamed inflation and an increase in net worth all provide the capacity and the confidence to spend.”
The holiday forecast is consistent with NRF’s forecast that annual retail sales for 2018 will increase at least 4.5% over 2017.
US Tariffs are shifting - will you react or anticipate?
Don’t let policy changes catch you off guard. Stay proactive with real-time data and expert analysis.
By GlobalDataThe holiday forecast is based on an economic model using several indicators including consumer credit, disposable personal income, and previous monthly retail sales. The number includes online and other non-store sales.
