US retail sales in February were weaker-than-expected due to colder and wet weather that kept shoppers home – although delays and revisions related to the government shutdown make it difficult to draw comparisons with last year.
Retail sales were down 0.7% in February seasonally adjusted from January, but up 2.7% unadjusted year-over-year, the National Retail Federation (NRF) said.
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The numbers, which exclude automobiles, gasoline stations and restaurants, include a 5.7% rise year-over-year in online and other non-store sales, which were up 0.6% on January seasonally adjusted.
Sales at clothing and clothing accessory stores were down 0.5% year-over-year and by 0.4% from January, while sales at sporting goods stores tumbled 8.2% year-over-year but were up 0.5% seasonally adjusted from last month.
February’s results build on improvement seen in January, which was up 1.9% monthly and 4.8% year-over-year, according to revised data released yesterday (1 April). January had originally been reported as a 1.3% increase over December and up 3.6% year-over-year.
“The weaker-than-expected February retail sales numbers reflect colder weather and increased precipitation that kept shoppers home but were also skewed downward because of the government’s upward revision in January’s results,” says NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “The after-effects of the erratic stock market, the government shutdown and slower tax refunds this year also likely played a role.”
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By GlobalDataKleinhenz adds that looking beyond the February figures and focusing instead on the “very significant” revision to January retail sales, shows consumers have not forsaken the economy as some previously claimed.
“We still expect growth to pick up, fuelled by strong fundamentals like job and wage growth that are driving increased consumer spending. The consumer will continue to provide direction and strength to the US economy in the months ahead.”
As of February, the three-month moving average was up 2.2% over the same period a year ago.
NRF’s numbers are based on data from the US Census Bureau, which says overall February sales – including auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants – were down 0.2% seasonally adjusted from January but up 2.2% unadjusted year-over-year.
The release of retail sales data for December, January and February has been delayed as the Bureau works through a backlog caused by the government shutdown earlier this year. Similarly, the Internal Revenue Service has been slow in issuing refund checks, which traditionally help drive spending in the early months of each year.
The results come as NRF is forecasting that retail sales during 2019 will increase between 3.8%-4.4% to more than US$3.8 trillion. The forecast is subject to revision as more data is released in the coming months.
