Forecasts for world cotton production have been adjusted again, with the latest projection pointing to an 11% increase during the 2017/18 marketing year, according to new figures from the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).
In its latest update, ICAC indicated recovery continues in the period, with production indicated at 25.4m tonnes due to increased area. This compares with its December forecast of 25.7m tonnes.
Following the sharp drop in production in 2015/16, the 2016/17 production recovered by 7% to 23m tonnes.
Production in the US for the current season is expected to increase 25% to 4.7m tonnes, while India remains the world’s largest producer with 2017/18 production forecast at 6.2m tonnes with 8.7% growth. The second largest producer, China, has production currently projected at 5.2m tonne with a 7.1% increase, while Pakistan’s production projections for the period show an 11.5% increase to 1.9m tonnes. Production increase in Turkey is estimated to grow 18% to 829,000 tonnes.
Other major cotton producing countries are expected to have positive growth attributed to increased area and yields.
Meanwhile, international cotton prices have continued to move upward over the last few months as the season has been under-way. From the season low of 77 cents per pound at the start of season, prices are at a season high at the end of this calendar year, up to 88 cents per pound.
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By GlobalDataHowever, the current season average of 80 cents per pound is lower than the 2016/17 average of 83 cents per pound.
With a lower international price from the previous season and the rising price of competing fibres, global consumption is expected to grow. After stagnating in 2016/17, global cotton demand is expected to increase 3% in 2017/18 to 25.2m tonnes. Chinese mill use is expected to remain stable at 8.1m tonnes, while India and Pakistan are expected to increase 3% and 4% respectively.
Consumption in Vietnam is expected to grow 12% to 1.3m tonnes, while moderate growth of 2-3% is expected for other major consuming countries of Bangladesh, Turkey and the US.
