“Stores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said. “Regardless of what develops, retailers will adjust their supply chains accordingly and strive to ensure that consumers have affordable options when they shop.”
The administration has recently reduced tariffs on some food products, but the future of other tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act rests with a challenge currently being considered by the Supreme Court. Even if the tariffs are struck down, the administration is likely to seek to reinstate them under other trade authorities.
The effect of rising tariffs on global trade is unlikely to end soon, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said.
“We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year,” Hackett said. “Container shipping rates are already declining on both coasts due to less need for cargo space for goods from both Asia and Europe.”
The update comes as the NRF forecasts record holiday sales of over $1tn for the first time, up between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024.
In October, US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.07m Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units. That figure was down 1.8% from September and down 7.9% year over year.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for November, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.91m TEU, down 11.6% year over year. December is forecast at 1.86m TEU, down 12.7%. Following July’s peak of 2.39m TEU, November and December would be the slowest months of the year. And December would be the slowest month since 1.83m TEU in June 2023.
November and December are traditionally slow, but the large year-over-year declines are partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns over port strikes. In addition, many retailers imported cargo earlier than usual this year to avoid tariffs.
The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53m TEU, up 3.7% year over year. The full year is forecast at 25.2m TEU, down 1.4% from 25.5m TEU in 2024.
Cargo is expected to see its first month-over-month increase in six months in January, which is forecast at 2m TEU but would still be down 10.3% year over year. February is forecast at 1.86m TEU, down 8.5% year over year; March at 1.79m TEU, down 16.8%, and April at 1.97m, down 10.9%.
