With most holiday merchandise already on shelves, US retailers have slowed shipments after frontloading orders earlier in the year to avoid the impact of new sectoral tariffs.
“This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy.
New 25% tariffs on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities are due to take effect next week, with further increases scheduled in January. A delayed tariff hike on Chinese imports is also expected to take effect on 10 November, unless postponed again by the White House.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett warned that ongoing policy uncertainty is creating “significant economic uncertainty” across the supply chain.
“Many large companies preemptively imported goods to build up inventories, but as those stockpiles are depleted, the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will become apparent,” he said.
The report notes that the US handled 2.32m TEU in August - down 2.9% from July but marginally higher year on year. September is projected at 2.12m TEU, while October volumes are expected to fall to 1.97m TEU, marking a 12.3% drop compared with the same period in 2024.
November and December are forecast to fall further to 1.75m TEU and 1.72m TEU respectively, the lowest levels since March 2023.
Although total import volumes for the first half of 2025 rose 3.7% year on year, the full-year total is expected to decline 2.9% to 24.79m TEU. The downturn is expected to continue into early 2026, with January forecast at 1.87m TEU, down 16.1% year over year, and February forecast at 1.77m TEU, down 12.8%.
