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January 24, 2019

Cotton price forecast for 2018/19 lowered

By Hannah Abdulla

The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has lowered its price forecast for the 2018/19 period, shortly after advising cotton production is expected to fall for the first time in three years.

In its executive summary for January, the ICAC said with a confidence interval of 95%, the Secretariat has set its 2018/19 price forecast for cotton fibre at 86.45 cents per pound, down from the 89 cents reported in December 2018. 

The forecast, which has a price range from a low of 75.60 cents to a high of 100.21 cents, is based on world cotton consumption totalling 26.7m tonnes; world cotton ending stocks amounting to 18.2m tonnes; and world trade totalling 9.4m tonnes.

In addition, the figures are reliant upon China’s cotton consumption amounting to 8.45m tonnes; ending stocks in China totalling 7.66m tonnes, and the country’s cotton imports totalling 1.6m tonnes.

In its previous edition, the ICAC said global cotton production is expected to fall in the 2018/19 season for the first time in three years, while China’s reserves will be at their lowest levels since 2011/12.

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