Global merchandise trade in volume terms is forecast to grow by 13.5% in 2010 – the biggest increase in 60 years, and sharply up on the 9.5% increase projected in March – the World Trade Organization (WTO) said in a revised forecast.
The WTO now anticipates exports by developing countries to grow by 16.5% and by developed countries to grow by 11.5%. This compares with 2009, whenworld exports plunged by 12.2% – the biggest fall since before World War II – as a result of the global recession sparked by the international financial crisis.
Pascal Lamy, WTO director-general, said the strong recovery in trade signalled improved economic activity worldwide, and stressed the surge in trade flows “provides the means to climb out of this painful economic recession and can help put people back to work.”
A WTO trade analyst, asked how the latest forecast by the agency may play out for global textiles and apparel, said Wednesday (22 September) he anticipated exports in textiles to perform better than apparel.
Preliminary trade estimates for the first quarter of this year show that world exports of textiles in value terms rose by 17% year-on-year, while global exports of apparel dropped by 1%.
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By GlobalDataOverall, for 2010, he expects the re-bound in global exports of textiles, and more so of apparel, to register smaller gains in value terms than other manufactures.
“At the height of the crisis last year, exports in textiles and apparel did not fall as fast as other manufactured goods, such as steel or automobiles,” he said, and added he anticipated they are not likely to re-bind as fast in the trade recovery.
In the first and second quarter of 2009, exports of textiles in value terms year-on-year fell by 28% and 27%, respectively, while apparel registered declines of 10% and 15%.
