The steady decline in import cargo volume for the remainder of 2025 follows a near-record peak for the summer months, according to the Global Port Tracker.
NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold explained: “We have seen the implementation of reciprocal tariffs across the globe, with a number of key trading partners being subjected to tariffs higher than the earlier 10% tariffs.
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“We also continue to see more and more sectoral tariffs impacting a wider scope of products. Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of US trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success.”
He adds that “these tariffs and disruptions to the supply chain are adding costs that will ultimately lead to higher prices for American consumers”.
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.36m Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in July, although numbers for New York/New Jersey, Port Everglades and Miami were estimated because they have not yet reported their data.
This was a 20.1% increase from June as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariffs set to take effect in August, and up 1.8% year over year.
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By GlobalDataNRF noted this would be the second-busiest month on record, topped only by 2.4m TEU in May 2022.
Ports have not yet reported numbers for August, but Global Port Tracker has projected the month at 2.28m TEU, which would be a decline of 1.7% year over year but higher than that 2.2m TEU expected before the postponement of China tariffs and the new tariff on India.
The NRF explained that while “reciprocal” tariffs on a number of countries took effect in early August, a federal appeals court later ruled against President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose the tariffs, but left them in place while the ruling is under appeal to the Supreme Court.
Meanwhile, Trump delayed an increase in tariffs on China by 90 days to 10 November so trade negotiations could continue. Trump also announced an additional 25% tariff on India that took effect near the end of August, bringing the additional tariff rate to 50%.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett pointed out “tariffs have had a significant impact on trade,” before adding “the trade outlook for the final months of the year is not optimistic.”
September is forecast at 2.12m TEU, down 6.8% year over year; October at 1.95m TEU, down 13.2%, and November at 1.74m TEU, down 19.7%. December is forecast at 1.7m TEU, down 20.1% year over year for the slowest month since 1.62m TEU in March 2023.
The NRF explained that while the falling monthly totals are related to tariffs, the year-over-year percentage declines are both because of this year’s early peak season and because imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns about port strikes.
The first half of 2025 totalled 12.53m TEU, up 3.6% year over year. The full year is forecast at 24.7m TEU, down 3.4% from 25.5m TEU in 2024.
January 2026 is forecast at 1.8m TEU, down 19.1% year over year.
