Despite growing supply-side challenges and geopolitical uncertainty, global cotton trade is projected to rise from 9.4 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season to approximately 10.3 million tonnes by 2028/29. 

The ICAC predicts a complex interplay between production, consumption and inventories that will shape the outlook for global cotton flows.  

In the 2026/27 season, world production is set to drop by 2% to 25.8 million tonnes, while consumption remains resilient at around 25.5 million tonnes.  

The narrowing gap between supply and use means exporters’ inventories are becoming ever more vital in meeting international demand. 

“Global cotton trade is entering a period in which supply constraints, inventory levels, policy decisions, and consumption trends will play an increasingly important role," explains Parkhi Vats, ICAC Principal Statistician and author of the report.

"While production challenges and geopolitical uncertainty remain significant, the medium-term outlook points to continued growth in trade as markets respond to stable consumption and shifting sourcing relationships.” 

Key regional cotton trends: 

• Brazil is expected to retain its position as the world’s top cotton lint exporter in 2025/26, thanks to bumper harvests, competitive prices and expanded access in global markets. This comes even as reduced US availability presses buyers to look elsewhere. 

• US cotton exports dipped in 2025/26 but are expected to rebound by 3% in 2026/27, aided by higher ending stocks and gradual market recovery. 

• China, the largest global consumer of cotton, is expected to sharply increase its imports in 2025/26 as its demand recovers from a previous slide. Prolonged growth in China's textile and apparel output could drive additional imports, further bolstering world trade. 

• Bangladesh remains a leading importer, though its consumption and imports have been hit by economic and energy challenges. 

• Vietnam continues to gain importance as a major importer, supported by its booming textile sector and developing trade partnerships. 

• India’s cotton trade dynamics are evolving with new policy measures and growing domestic consumption. 

Tariffs, energy costs and shipping concerns

Beyond the volume outlook, the ICAC flags several risk factors clouding the trade picture. These include shifting tariff policies, new trade agreements, high energy costs, and ongoing logistics headaches such as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for global cotton flows. 

The report emphasises that as global production and consumption draw closer together, any unforeseen jump in demand may force bulk exporters to tap more deeply into their inventories.  

This “tight balance” is making international pricing and strategic sourcing decisions more delicate than ever.