ICAC’s March edition of Cotton This Month projections sees a decline in global cotton production in the 2026/27 season to 24.8 million tonnes, while consumption is expected to remain relatively steady at 25.0 million tonnes.

Lower cotton prices, shifting planting intentions in major producing countries and weaker demand, particularly from China, are contributing to the projected reduction in output.

With production currently exceeding consumption in 2025/26, the decline expected in the next season could bring global supply and demand closer to balance.

While demand in China has fallen, the country is expected to remain the world’s largest producer and consumer of cotton. Its use of cotton is projected to decline modestly as manmade fibres gain market share.

India, Brazil and the US continue to play central roles in global supply, while Bangladesh and Vietnam remain key drivers of import demand.

World cotton lint trade in the 2026/27 season is projected at 9.6 million tonnes. Brazil is expected to remain the world’s largest exporter, followed by the US.

Recent trade policy developments, including the new US tariff measures and updated trade agreements involving Bangladesh, India, and the European Union, introduce additional uncertainty into the global cotton market.

The  ICAC says the full implications of these measures will depend on implementation and market response.