Collected at the start of March 2026, immediately after the US and Israel began strikes on Iran, the data shows that UK consumers are concerned about the potential impact of the conflict on the economy.

63.3% of those asked said they expect the economy to worsen over the next six months.

GlobalData says the data shows UK consumers fear the impact of worsening international relations more than potential tax changes in the UK.

“The significant fall in consumer confidence will be a real concern for UK retailers who have faced years of challenges post-Covid and will have been hoping to see consumer sentiment rise in 2026,” says Sofie Willmott, associate director of Retail at GlobalData.

“Uncertainty around the economy and their personal finances is likely to lead consumers to pull back on discretionary spending causing more pain for struggling non-food retailers.”

Almost half of those surveyed said they expect interest rates to increase this year, putting more pressure on mortgage holders and first-time house buyers.

Willmott continues: “The Middle East war has triggered a change in direction for UK interest rates which will encourage more affluent consumers to continue saving, rather than spending on retail. It will also mean more of consumers’ monthly outgoings will be swallowed up by interest paid on mortgages, as borrowers change deals, once again diverting funds that could be spent on retail products.”

The initial shock of the conflict may ease over time, softening the impact on consumer confidence and in turn retail spending, but until there is an end to the war, some level of uncertainty will remain and will put UK consumers off making big financial decisions.

Willmott concludes: “Weak consumer confidence in 2026 will hinder retail spending and while some level of uncertainty remains, shoppers are likely to focus their buying on essential products like groceries and health & beauty items.”