The report, “E-Commerce in 2026,” suggests that the sector is not experiencing a “slowdown”, but rather a “redistribution” of activity that is reshaping the competitive environment for brands, retailers, and marketplaces.
Tradebyte CEO Matthias Schulte said: “The story of e-commerce in 2026 is not one of slowdown, but of redistribution.”
Regional growth shifts East and North
While Western Europe continues to lead in gross merchandise value (GMV), accounting for more than 73% of projected GMV in 2025 across Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, the strongest growth rates are now emerging elsewhere.
According to the report, Central and Eastern Europe saw GMV increase by 59%, while the Nordic countries reported a 37% rise, making them the fastest-growing regions within Tradebyte’s network.
Smaller European markets are also experiencing rapid acceleration. Luxembourg, Norway, Cyprus, Greece, and Portugal each recorded GMV growth exceeding 100% in 2025. This surge is attributed largely to marketplace expansion and the increasing role of cross-border fulfilment.
The analysis draws on transactional data from over 1,000 brands and more than 90 retailers using the Tradebyte platform, as well as third-party industry research and expert commentary.
“Our position at the intersection of brands, marketplaces and retailers allows us to see shifts in demand and performance as they happen. We’re tracking how growth is moving across regions, categories and channels, and it’s clear that brands that understand where demand is heading, and can operate with speed and precision, are the ones pulling ahead,” Matthias Schulte added.
Diverging category performance
The report highlights sharp contrasts in category performance. Underwear registered as the fastest-growing segment with a 45% increase, followed by beauty products at 16%, and sportswear at 10%.
While fashion remains the largest category overall, its growth is increasingly driven by value-oriented and utility-focused products rather than traditional trends.
Returns emerge as margin battleground
The study notes that return rates have become a critical factor affecting profitability across markets. The UK posted an average return rate of approximately 14%, whereas Germany, Switzerland, and Austria saw rates exceed 50%.
In response to these disparities and their impact on margins, many retailers are expected to phase out free returns by 2026. This shift places new emphasis on accurate sizing data, fit information, and high-quality product content to minimise returns.
Discovery channels fragment further
Consumer product discovery now spans multiple marketplaces, social platforms, and AI interfaces. Algorithms have become central to driving visibility on these channels.
Tradebyte’s data shows that demand is increasingly generated within digital ecosystems before customers reach specific product pages.
Data quality becomes essential for visibility
Brands with structured product data, real-time inventory availability, and consistent pricing are better positioned to qualify for algorithmic ranking and expand across multiple regions and channels.
These capabilities are also becoming necessary to comply with upcoming regulations such as the Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR) and Digital Product Passports.
AI’s expanding role in e-commerce operations
AI is playing an expanded role in areas such as forecasting, pricing decisions, stock allocation, and scaling content production. While direct consumer adoption of AI shopping tools progresses gradually, AI mechanisms already influence which products are shown to shoppers.
The report cites pricing optimisation as an area with particularly strong impact relative to effort invested. Additionally, brands leveraging AI for content creation have achieved sales increases of 5–15% and reductions in return rates between 5–20%.
