In March, US ports covered by Global Port Tracker processed 2.15m Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), an increase of 5.5% from February and an 11.3% increase from the previous year. However, projections for upcoming months indicate a reversal of this growth trend.
Ports are yet to provide numbers for April 2025, but the Global Port Tracker anticipated a 9.1% year over year TEU growth for the month reaching 2.2m.
May's forecast predicts a 12.9% decline from last year, ending a 19-month streak of growth.
NRF supply chain and customs policy vice president Jonathan Gold said: “We are starting to see the true impact of the tariffs on the supply chain. From national security tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China to global and reciprocal tariffs on all countries and a multitude of tariffs on specific sectors, the results will include higher costs for businesses as well as reduced cargo volumes. In the end, these tariffs will affect consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability on store shelves.”
Projections indicate that June's container throughput will reach 1.71m TEU, marking the lowest figure since March 2023 and representing a significant 20.2% decline compared to the same period last year.
The forecast for July suggests a volume of 1.77m TEU, which is a decrease of 23.4% on a year-over-year basis.
August is expected to see a further dip, with volumes predicted at 1.82m TEU, down by 21.5%, while September's forecasted volume stands at 1.79m TEU, indicating a 21.2% reduction from the previous year's figures.
Prior to the announcement of the latest tariffs in April, imports were anticipated to grow by 5.7% year over year reaching 2.13m TEU.
Import cargo was projected to grow by 2.8% to 2.14m TEU in May and a 3.2% decline at 2.07m TEU in June and 13.9% decline in July this year.
The latest projections indicate that the first half of 2025 will reach a total of 12.13m TEU, marking a modest increase of 0.3% compared to the previous year. This is a significant adjustment from earlier predictions, which anticipated a more robust growth of 5.7% year over year, totalling 12.78m TEU prior to the declaration of tariffs in April.
Retailers have kept imports high since last summer due to concerns over potential port strikes and tariff escalations post-elections.
The total imports for 2024 reached 25.5m TEU, up 14.7% from 2023, a peak not seen since the pandemic's record figures in 2021.
Gold highlighted that recent tariffs have disrupted retailers' crucial buying periods, leading many to halt or cancel orders. Small retailers face uncertainty regarding future ordering decisions.
As a result, import volumes are expected to plummet by at least 20% from June compared to last year with annual volume potentially declining by more than 10%.
Despite these challenges, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett emphasised that trade continues albeit at reduced levels.
“Container carriers are indeed dropping voyages and consolidating cargo and service to ensure that their vessels are as full as possible and to maintain economies of scale as demand declines,” Hackett said.
He added that “container carriers are indeed dropping voyages and consolidating cargo and service to ensure that their vessels are as full as possible and to maintain economies of scale as demand declines". But, reports of empty container terminals, ships making U-turns in mid-voyage and that the supply chain is “broken” are “very far from the truth and the reality on the ground".
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