The lift is expected to be short-lived, with import volumes forecast to trail last year’s levels for much of late summer and early fall, according to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
NRF supply chain and customs policy vice president Jonathan Gold said: “We expect to see a year-over-year increase this month that’s partly driven by retailers bringing in merchandise early because of higher costs from tariffs or fuel prices that could come starting in August. Nonetheless, the ongoing trend is for lower imports as the conflict in Iran continues to cause higher inflation and economic uncertainty.”
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the June year-over-year comparison is also shaped by last year’s weak baseline. Imports fell sharply after President Donald Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025.
Based on data reported to date, the ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.05 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in April 2026, though figures for the Port of New York and New Jersey were not yet available.
April volumes were down 5.1% from March and 7.3% from a year earlier, indicating weaker throughput before the expected early-summer rebound.
For May, when port authorities had not yet released final totals, the report estimated imports at 2.14 million TEU, a 9.7% increase year over year.
June is forecast at 2.25 million TEU, up 14.3%, reflecting both earlier ordering patterns and the low comparison period in 2025.
Hackett said: “We have increased our outlook for June cargo volume as retailers bring forward their peak season cargo to mitigate increasing shipping costs as carriers pass along the sharply rising cost of fuel and because of concerns about punitive replacement tariffs.”
After mid-summer, volumes are expected to ease, with July forecast at 2.19 million TEU, down 8.4% year over year, followed by 2.12 million TEU in August, down 8.6%, and 2.06 million TEU in September, down 2.2%.
October is projected at 2.08 million TEU, essentially flat, up 0.1%. Hackett said the front-loaded shipping pattern could produce an earlier peak season with elevated volumes spread across June and July rather than a single pronounced spike.
If the projections hold, first-half 2026 imports would total 12.6 million TEU, up 0.6% from the same period in 2025, the report stated.
“The current import surge will likely last into July, with an early peak season that resembles the more recent pattern of raised volume rather than a sharp peak. After this, we expect a weakening in import volume as consumer uncertainty remains high and the impact of increasing inflation takes its toll,” Hackett added.
