Despite this anticipated rise, January’s figure is expected to remain 5.3% lower than the same month last year.
The report forecasts February imports at 1.94m TEU, a 4.6% year-on-year decrease.
March is forecast at 1.88m TEU, down 12.4%, and April at 2.03m TEU, down 8.1%.
The outlook for May anticipates an import volume of 2.07m TEU, which would represent a 6.2% increase over the previous year and the first annual gain since last August.
November saw US ports handling 2.02m TEU, a decline of 2.3% compared to October and down 6.5% from November of the previous year.
While official figures for December are not yet available, Global Port Tracker estimates a total of 1.99m TEU for that month, reflecting a 6.6% year-on-year decrease.
NRF Supply Chain and Customs Policy vice president Jonathan Gold said: “There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year.
“Retailers had a busy holiday season and are assessing what’s ahead in 2026 so they can keep supply chains running smoothly to ensure consumers can find the products they want at prices they can afford. Retailers are hoping for more stability and certainty, especially regarding tariffs and trade policy, in 2026 to help ensure better supply chain operations to meet consumer needs.”
The report notes that late 2024 import volumes were elevated as retailers rushed shipments in anticipation of potential port strikes and tariffs.
For the first six months of 2025, container imports reached a total of 12.53m TEU, which is an increase of 3.7% compared to the same period last year.
The full-year forecast for 2025 stands at 25.4m TEU, slightly below the 25.5m TEU recorded in 2024.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said ongoing trade policy is likely to continue influencing cargo imports in 2026 after the "chronic uncertainty" caused by increased US tariffs in 2025.
“As 2026 begins, we see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances. This approach has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation,” Hackett added.
